I think the Helix, especially the LT and Stomp, are still very favorably priced in comparison to other units on the market. Helix Floor, QC and TMP are roughly in the same price category even in the EU, but Helix Floor is still the most "all in one" out of those with its integrated expression pedal, more I/O and footswitching. That said, the QC still seems to be the top seller.
I fully expect that next gen Line6 won't be just a "QC/TMP made by Line6". I think they will actually be far more forward thinking, possible making the QC and TMP feel like the "Nintendo Wii U of modelers" - devices in between the old and new generation.
To me Cliff seems like the kind of guy who has the most fun when he's working on amp simulation and effects. It's like a puzzle he has to solve. I can totally understand that, because that's kind of the part that I love about my own programming work - there's a lot of satisfaction to be had when you figure out a hard problem or manage to make something you feel works great and is elegant code.
He's probably not too far off from having the amp modeling stuff pretty much nailed, and the next gen processing power might get there. Maybe next gen will also have him make fuzz effects that are dead on accurate to their analog counterparts, including interacting with your guitar pickup impedance.
He's not the guy who cares so much about how the unit is to operate, how easy Axe-Edit is to use etc. That's why I've been saying Fractal needs designers and developers who are as passionate about usability as Cliff is about modeling.
Maybe developing on the Axe-Fx 3 still allows him to focus most on the actual algorithms without worrying about architecture or UI. Then they can figure out how to port that to a new architecture that is probably in development for the next gen units because they probably want things like having various switches and channels all in one model instead of spread to several different models. I'm sure there will be a ton of Axe-Fx 3 code behind the scenes on the Axe-Fx 4.
Doug Castro is now probably purely business management and not involved in day to day development operations at all. His days are probably built around figuring out how to make the company more valuable, possibly work with parts supply chain management etc. NeuralDSP appears from time to time in Finnish business magazine articles and the people interviewed tend to be Doug Castro or Francisco Cresp.
The end goal may be the same as many tech startups: get bought by a bigger player, and the top brass get a good payday and people who joined early and own company stock get a decent payoff as well. But with Fender making their own competing product, maybe the brands that might buy NDSP could be e.g Gibson or Zound (who own Marshall).
IMO Christoph Kemper's problem is that he's too happy to sit on his laurels and believe in the superiority of his solution. It took 10 years to get USB audio support on Kemper, to the point people thought the hardware was not there. Similarly the Liquid Profiling seems like something he's experimented with but didn't want to push out unless there was competition.
Kemper Stage and Player are both products that were released years after they should have been, so both feel dated right on release. I imagine they would be far more popular if Stage came out in 2017 instead of 2019, or Player in 2020 instead of late 2023. At this rate, the "Kemper 2" will release in 2028 when everyone else is already ahead of whatever Christoph's idea of a "Kemper 2" might look like if they started developing it in 2024.
I don't disagree with anything you stated.
With regards to Kemper, I don't think there will be a Kemper 2 either. I see Christoph as a visionary that had an idea and in his mind he fulfilled his goal. He opted to add a few additional platforms that utilized the original tech.
As products all reach as close as they can get to replacing amps I wonder where things will go. I think usability and and the enjoyment factor will become increasing important.
After trying the TMP I think they have the easiest device hands down.
They did what Neural attempted to do with the touch screen without the ridiculous preset sharing/liking/cloud setup.
I also wouldn't count out all of the smaller NAM related players. I think they will ultimately bring prices down as more people will realize they can do things cheaper.
As far as each company's vision, I have no idea but I can't see NDSP continuing to create the same rehashed plugins forever. They are all basically the same thing and now with X series and the porting into the QC, the overlap will really show.
Fractal will continue as long as Cliff wants it to but ultimately I think he's achieved what he set out to do.
They can't make a simple GUi. Sure they could add bluetooth, wifi, a touchscreen but ultimately you will still be leafing through 7 screens of amp parameters and that's the strength of Fractal. Cliff could stop now and go out on top for creating the most robust platform. It's all up to him.
I drew the comparison to Christoph not based on the Kemper device but based on a guy who set out to do something and did it then relaxed. I think the Kemper unit is still great.
Could it be better, sure. They could be on their 5th version already but CK was content.
Line 6 can do whatever they want but as everything already sounds so close I'm not sure what they will add to the equation. Their effects are not top shelf. Their device has never sounded the best. They used to have the best UI. Yamaha has never been the best at anything. Very good products though. Line 6 seems to fit that mold. Sure, they could adopt capturing or NAM integration but that won't make them unique in any way.
Fender has an opportunity to take a very user friendly device and perfect its simplicity by adding a few already globally adopted features like scenes/snapshots and then leave it alone. (Not as much as Kemper but more like BOSS) They could attempt to add plugin functionality through Presonus and have their amps DAW based.
I'm just thinking out loud
I could get by with any of these units in their current state, but usability/ease of use will play a factor in sales. I still like Tonex and if they ever marketed a full modeler and made a better UI, I would buy it. If they did it right, i think it would end NDSP. Will they, probably not.
As it stands, my Axe3/fc12 is currently up for sale in an attempt to acquire an Fm9 and potentially the TMP again if they play their cards right.
