Winter NAMM 2026 predictions

[timbuck3]

If that doesn't mean "we have a surprise for you this NAMM", then what does.

He was f Ing with us all

 

[Guitarplayer1969]

He posted this on this thread so I assumed it was going to happen at NAMM.

I read around the time of NAMM since Fractal doesnt actually exhibit at NAMM ever.

 

[Aleksi]

Biggest post-NAMM news for the time being: Native Instruments is possibly history. They're in preliminary insolvency.

Damn, I just got a Kontrol keyboard last year. Well if they go down I'll still have Thomann warranty for a few years

 

[FrankyFire]

Biggest post-NAMM news for the time being: Native Instruments is possibly history. They're in preliminary insolvency.

Wow! That's unexpected (if you, like me, haven't checked how they are doing financially). I thought they should be doing good with all the stuff they have up their sleeves. Lots of good Keyboard Controller, Maschine, DJ stuff and especially Kontakt Player which seems to be some sort of standard for some.

 

[Sascha Franck]

Lots of good Keyboard Controller, Maschine, DJ stuff and especially Kontakt Player which seems to be some sort of standard for some.

And lots of totally awkward business decisions over the last years.

 

[LP59]

Wow! That's unexpected (if you, like me, haven't checked how they are doing financially). I thought they should be doing good with all the stuff they have up their sleeves. Lots of good Keyboard Controller, Maschine, DJ stuff and especially Kontakt Player which seems to be some sort of standard for some.

If you pile on enough debt (due to filling VC pockets), you can turn any business into a failure.

 

[Chocol8]

If you pile on enough debt (due to filling VC pockets), you can turn any business into a failure.

Sure, but FYI you guys know way less about business than they know about music. For example, VC's don't do leveraged buyouts at all and rarely if ever load companies up with debt. They don't typically invest in established brands either. You are thinking of a subset of PE firms, and even they don't operate the way most people on forums think.

I mean, do you really think banks and other lenders are stupid? They don't like lending to companies that fail, since they like to get paid back. While some are happy to carry risky credit card and other consumer debt, the high fees and interest and relatively small balances allow them to absorb losses spread across very large portfolios. Lending tens or hundreds of millions to PE backed firms is very different. Each one of the losses stings a lot more, so lenders will only tolerate a much much lower failure rate from PE than keyboard finance experts assume.

 

[LP59]

VC's don't do leveraged buyouts at all and rarely if ever load companies up with debt.

That's exactly what happened with Native Instruments. Another example of this is Guitar Center. It sounds like you're trying to make a pedantic semantic point about the difference between VC and PE.

 

[Chocol8]

That's exactly what happened with Native Instruments. Another example of this is Guitar Center. It sounds like you're trying to make a pedantic semantic point about the difference between VC and PE.

Its not just a pendantic semantic point. Its more of a polite way of pointing out that you clearly have no fucking clue what you are talking about.

I work in the finance world and have VC's, PE firms, big investors, lenders, and the companies themselves as clients. They make mistakes, they make bets that don't pan out, sometimes people act badly and someone gets screwed, just like in all facets of life. BUT, it doesn’t work the way you think it does. Not even close.

 

[LP59]

Its not just a pendantic semantic point. Its more of a polite way of pointing out that you clearly have no fucking clue what you are talking about.

WTF?!

If you have knowledge of the details on the Native Instruments or Guitar Center situations that shed light on the discussion, let's hear it. Otherwise, ad hominem attacks coming out of nowhere make it look like you don't know anything about the subject so you had to resort to a strangely bizarre personal attack. I'm sure that's not what you intended, but, JFC, this is the kind of shit one finds at TOP that we're all trying to get away from.

 

[Chocol8]

WTF?!

If you have knowledge of the details on the Native Instruments or Guitar Center situations that shed light on the discussion, let's hear it. Otherwise, ad hominem attacks coming out of nowhere make it look like you don't know anything about the subject so you had to resort to a strangely bizarre personal attack. I'm sure that's not what you intended, but, JFC, this is the kind of shit one finds at TOP that we're all trying to get away from.

I do have knowledge on GC that I can't post. It isn't what you think. Native I know nothing that isn't public but it sure looks like a whole lot of management mistakes over the years that lead to needing the external financing and then more mistakes. Its not like it was a healthy well run company that just got poisoned by debt.

I tried to be polite, but dude, you are posting some pretty strong opinions on things you have no experience with. Talk about ToP behavior. Nobody with any finance background or specific knowledge on the situation would confuse VC with PE in this case. Thats like a non musician calling a keyboard a guitar.

Enough of a derail. Go ahead and keep ranting about VC's. I wont argue.

 

[timbuck3]

I do have knowledge on GC that I can't post. It isn't what you think. Native I know nothing that isn't public but it sure looks like a whole lot of management mistakes over the years that lead to needing the external financing and then more mistakes. Its not like it was a healthy well run company that just got poisoned by debt.

I tried to be polite, but dude, you are posting some pretty strong opinions on things you have no experience with. Talk about ToP behavior. Nobody with any finance background or specific knowledge on the situation would confuse VC with PE in this case. Thats like a non musician calling a keyboard a guitar.

Enough of a derail. Go ahead and keep ranting about VC's. I wont argue.

What does he think? Even if you said something about gc no one would give a crap

 

[Chocol8]

Even if you said something about gc no one would give a crap

Uh really? My livelihood depends on clients trusting I will honor confidentiality and non-disclosure agreements, and with companies that are publicly traded or have public debt, there are government agencies that will also care.

 

[Orvillain]

I can't begin to understand what went wrong with Native really. I have opinions, informed by the things I've heard from friends who worked there and the general industry gossip.

What I can say is, it doesn't seem sensible to entrust your music tech brand to Francisco Partners right now.

 

[LP59]

I can't begin to understand what went wrong with Native really. I have opinions, informed by the things I've heard from friends who worked there and the general industry gossip.

What I can say is, it doesn't seem sensible to entrust your music tech brand to Francisco Partners right now.

The fact remains they've got a good stable of products, at least two of which provide a reliable stream of upgrade revenue (and have done so even after much of the staff left). Somebody will get left holding the bag here, but doesn't it seem likely the products will endure?

 

[Chocol8]

but doesn't it seem likely the products will endure?

Only if more of those "evil" PE guys decide it's worth it to dump money into them or another company with the cash to burn decides to acquire the products. That's hardly a sure bet given the state of the industry right now.

 

[timbuck3]

 

[[Nathan]]

Whenever izotope joined NI you could see the release cadence for more and more plugins (that nobody asked for) happening. More iterative upgrades to the music prod bundle and if you missed one then you fell into the upgrade bracket of someone who bought it 5 years ago.

The upgrade prices always seemed insanely high for what you’re getting and there was vocal complaints about it.

I’m sure there was pressure to get dollars over the line but I’m guessing plenty of people just tuned out due to pricing. Always felt like if they charged decent prices more people would just auto upgrade.

Doesnt help that they don’t use ilok and the stuff gets hacked the same day and filthy hobbitses get their mitts on so easily

 

[ian_dissonance]

Whenever izotope joined NI you could see the release cadence for more and more plugins (that nobody asked for) happening. More iterative upgrades to the music prod bundle and if you missed one then you fell into the upgrade bracket of someone who bought it 5 years ago.

The upgrade prices always seemed insanely high for what you’re getting and there was vocal complaints about it.

I’m sure there was pressure to get dollars over the line but I’m guessing plenty of people just tuned out due to pricing. Always felt like if they charged decent prices more people would just auto upgrade.

Doesnt help that they don’t use ilok and the stuff gets hacked the same day and filthy hobbitses get their mitts on so easily

I use it specifically because there’s no iLok. But I’m still on v10 because they went from like $100 upgrades on sale to more than I paid for the entire production bundle a few versions back. The “customer loyalty” pricing was just the retail price of the last version. Quite silly.

 

[[Nathan]]

I use it specifically because there’s no iLok. But I’m still on v10 because they went from like $100 upgrades on sale to more than I paid for the entire production bundle a few versions back. The “customer loyalty” pricing was just the retail price of the last version. Quite silly.

Yeah I can’t remember the exact path but whatever the iterative upgrade from 6 to the next one I just didn’t want that jump. But then the next jump was something I wanted. Because I missed the first half jump I was now in the same pool of people who owned music prod 2.

They really needed some more calculated tiers to not absolutely punish you for missing one iterative upgrade.

At that point I was like, I’ll just use this until there’s a really good upgrade in a couple years and then I’ll eat the high cost. I’m in the lowest bucket now what’s the incentive to be at the forefront again.