My hypothese is that the cost difference of putting amp sounds in hardware..between modeling and capturing, is going to increase exponentially. Devs that model amps versus a whole user community that stuff your gear with sounds for free. Its gonna get harder and harder to stick to the current business model of free updates of amps..while the “capture competitors” don’t have those costs.
I agree that adding more amp models to a component modeling system can be a cost - at least if you want to do it right by getting the real amp and painstakingly measuring it, comparing it etc. Fractal is clearly able to pretty easily slap in a new Marshall variant by changing some values of an existing model. They probably have most amp circuit permutations modeled at this point too.
So it's not like they can't keep adding more models, but there's already so many that if you can't find your tone out of those...you aren't looking for something to play. You are looking for something to collect without spending money yourself.
The pivot I'd like to see is leaving the entire "This models this and that amp" model to captures, and instead creating an entirely new set of amps like Line6 has done already.
At the turn of the century, I owned the Yamaha DG80 combo. It had 8 amp models, with generic names like Clean 1, Clean 2, Drive 1, Drive 2, Lead 1 etc. You could kinda trace the inspiration, e.g the Lead 1 was clearly inspired by a Soldano SLO etc. But nowhere did it advertise such things.
A friend of mine had the Line6 Flextone, which made a big hoopla about how it models this and that tube amp. People who tried that amp were often saying things like "eh, it's fine but it doesn't sound like the real deal". People who tried my Yamaha DG never said that, they just said it sounded nice. They were able to evaluate it on its own strengths and weaknesses instead of immediately going for "does this sound like the real tube amp" comparisons.
In the same way the Boss Katana for example never gets "It doesn't sound like a Marshall" comparisons, but people say stuff like "It doesn't sound as good as a tube amp". Which tube amp never comes into the discussion.