In a previous thread like this, I thought a touchscreen was a must for a next gen device, but after owning the AM4 for a bit I think it might not be.
The problems
The big annoyance on the FM3, FM9 and Axe-Fx 3 compared to the AM4 and VP4 is navigation and block management.
- The physical control layout is downright terrible. The nav buttons are spaced too far apart, other controls are cluttered around the big knob, the buttons often don't do what the labels say and the under screen knobs are cramped.
- The grid is a huge pain in the ass to navigate. Move cursor - Enter - Exit - move cursor - Enter - Exit. The AM4 simplifying this to a scroll knob and 4 blocks already takes out a major pain point, because it's faster to get to the next thing.
- Moving blocks is the worst UI design in the unit. Instead of "pick up and place" like a sensible design, it's "choose and execute function". AM4 with the simple "hold Enter and scroll" makes it child's play in the rare case when you need to do it.
- The block cycling shortcut order is completely unintuitive. Column -> row rather than "what is connected next".
- Nobody likes the "shunts" system for connecting blocks. AM4 doing away with it entirely streamlines everything.
While I don't love the scroll knob on the AM4, I don't think I would be massively faster with it if I were to tap and swipe on the screen. The Expert view also helps curate the controls better, and having some models combined is a huge help as well.
So what can Fractal do to make their next gen device better to use?
- Node based grid. You connect blocks, not grid slots. It can still be arranged like a grid, but you should never have to put in a "shunt" block.
- Fixed input and output positions on the grid. It is a bit odd to have to add these yourself, instead of just choosing which inputs and outputs are used.
- Pick and place block movement system. Makes sense on a touchscreen.
- Better physical control layout. I'd like to see better spaced knobs under a screen, and the return of some of the dedicated buttons that give you fast access to important systems. A Helix style Amp button would be great, similar to how Amp mode footswitch shortcut on the AM4 gives immediate access to the Amp block.
- Overhaul the modifier system. It needs a simple vs expert view treatment because it's too complicated for most users.
- The scene modifier system is ass. It also needs to be made fast and simple to use.
- Make the footswitch system easier. It's very programmable - but feels like a system for engineers rather than guitarists. Offer some templates that cover most users needs - e.g switching for presets + scenes, effects + scenes and so on similar to how Helix Stadium has a combo mode.
- On-board favorites.
- Better global blocks for Sascha.

That said, a touchscreen is going to be a thing just to keep up with what the competition is doing. But I think they could've continued without one by just fixing some core concepts in the system that make it slow to work with without the editor software.
Speculation for release
So I still think a lot of work is to be done on the user interface front, and that's where it will take them the longest as many pieces from Axe-Fx 3 cannot be just used as is but have to be rewritten from scratch. That pushes the timeline further away. The tariff madness and other world volatility doesn't help in finding the right time to release. I don't know if the RAM pricing issues affect Fractal as afaik modelers usually use older DDR3.
The software is likely to share a huge chunk of modeling code with the Axe-Fx 3. Cliff has spent years making it, and writing it from scratch would be a huge ordeal. Improved modeling still trickling in is an indicator that some of the Axe-Fx IV tech can be achieved on the current gen. I think at some point Cliff reaches a limit to what can be brought to Axe-Fx 3 and shifts entirely to Axe-Fx IV development.
The AM4 and VP4 are clearly interim products that aim to answer some of the biggest user demands: Making it easier to use and physically smaller. Being cheaper with one more footswitch than the FM3 are nice bonuses. I think they will be Fractal's best sellers for the next few years - and give them a lot of time to catch up to the competition.
I thought the Helix Stadium would dominate the field, but it's not polished enough and doesn't have big enough advantages over the competition yet. But it might get there by the end of the year if Line6 keeps pushing out updates every 3-4 months. Until then, Fractal is IMO still the best for pure sound quality.
My guess is that the next gen Fractal might come in 2027 at the earliest, possibly all the way in 2028.